How Netanyahu Engineered a Crisis

For 25 years, Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly asserted that Iran was only "a few weeks away" from obtaining a nuclear bomb. However, intelligence assessments, including those from the IAEA, have consistently found no evidence Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons.

This standoff culminated in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a landmark agreement negotiated by the U.S., other UN Security Council permanent members, and Germany. The deal permitted Iran to enrich uranium under strict international safeguards, consistent with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Netanyahu, backed by allies in the U.S. Congress, fiercely campaigned against it, succeeding in 2018 when they persuaded President Donald Trump to withdraw the U.S. from the agreement.

The roots of this confrontation extend deeper. In 2003, retired General Wesley Clark, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, revealed that neoconservatives in the Bush administration had devised a plan shortly after 9/11 to "reshape" the Middle East, targeting seven Muslim-majority nations—Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, and ultimately Iran—for invasion or destabilization. Since then, U.S. and Israeli actions have often aligned with undermining regional governments opposed to their interests, mirroring Clark’s list.

Israel, itself a nuclear-armed state, has a history of preemptively destroying nascent nuclear programs of regional adversaries, attacking Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and Syria’s al-Kibar facility in 2007 with impunity. Yet, Iran’s sophisticated, decentralized, and deeply buried nuclear infrastructure has proven impervious to similar Israeli strikes.

In April 2025, President Trump issued Iran a 60-day ultimatum demanding it accept a deal dismantling its enrichment capabilities. After five negotiation rounds, a sixth was scheduled for June 15th. However, Trump allegedly colluded in a calculated deception: enabling Israel to launch a massive assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities just two days before the talks.

The strike on June 13th succeeded as a devastating decapitation attack, killing over 20 senior Iranian military figures. Its goals were multifaceted: derailing negotiations, crippling Iran’s nuclear program, decimating its military leadership and nuclear expertise, and potentially triggering regime collapse.

Yet, Israel lacks the capacity to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program without direct U.S. military involvement, nor can it realistically achieve regime change—a goal that has eluded the U.S. for decades. Netanyahu is now desperately maneuvering to drag the United States into a full-scale war with Iran.

This carries immense risk for the U.S. Trump campaigned on avoiding new wars and disentangling from foreign quagmires. His "MAGA" base strongly opposes another Middle East conflict, which could derail domestic priorities and escalate tensions with rivals like China. Approximately 90,000 U.S. personnel, primarily in support roles across vulnerable regional bases, are within range of Iranian missiles.

A broader war could see Iran block the Strait of Hormuz (transiting 21% of global oil) or target Gulf oilfields, potentially sparking a worldwide economic crisis. Israel has defined victory solely as the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program or the fall of its government. Anything less would constitute a devastating defeat.

Netanyahu’s attempt to manipulate a U.S. president into this conflict is a gamble with dangerously high stakes.